The Baltimore Orioles may be in the AL East basement, but the three-time 100-loss franchise is coming off a series win over the Rays and haven’t lost a series since the beginning of the month. Both lineups could hang some crooked numbers with the starting pitching matchup, but it’s the Orioles who come in as -135 favorites.
Can the Orioles stack some runs against the Nationals, who have the league’s highest ERA, or will Washington take advantage of Baltimore’s hesitancy in its starting pitching? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Nationals vs. Orioles.
Nationals vs Orioles odds
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Jordan Lyles wasn’t announced as the starter till just before noon ET. Baltimore opened at -140 but then moved to -135 quickly and as low as -130. The total opened at 9.5 and leans to the Over.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Nationals vs Orioles predictions
Picks made on 6/21/2022 at 12:00 pm ET.
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Nationals vs Orioles game info
• Location: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD
• Date: Tuesday, June 21, 2022
• First pitch: 7:05 pm ET
• TV: MASN
Nationals vs Orioles betting preview
Erick Fedde (4-5, 4.88 ERA): Fedde and his 5.19 career ERA will toe the rubber Tuesday night. He has been serviceable for the Nats this season, with 10 of his 13 starts allowing three or fewer runs, but things aren’t going great right now for the right-hander. Over his last four turns, he’s given up 16 earned runs across 17 innings, and although he can keep the ball in the park, he allowed a ton of baserunners — 67 hits and 31 walks over 62-plus innings.
Jordan Lyles (4-5, 5.10 ERA): The right-handed Lyles missed his original start on Sunday with a stomach illness but was announced as a late starter today. Lyles has a 6.00 ERA over his last seven starts and has allowed 47 hits over that stretch. The Orioles are 5-8 SU when he starts and the Over is 7-6. Lyles is a veteran who sits in the low 90s but has been known to get hit around.
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Nationals: Victor Arano RP (Out), Sean Dolittle RP (Out).
Orioles: Trey Mancini OF (Questionable), Jordan Lyles SP (Out), Roman Urias SS (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 9-1 in the Orioles’ last 10 during game one of a series. Find more MLB betting trends for Nationals vs. Orioles
Nationals vs Orioles picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
The Baltimore Orioles might not be moving up the ladder of the AL East, but this is a team that has been playing better baseball of late. They’re 24-23 since April 29 and are coming off a series versus the Rays where they took two of three. They also stole two of the four versus the Jays in the series before that.
The Orioles have had to play 48 of their 68 games versus teams with a .500 record or better thanks to a tough division. They’ll happily welcome the Washington Nationals who sit in the NL basement and just ended an eight-game losing streak.
The Orioles are 9-8 with a +4 run differential so far in June.
Their last full winning month was August of 2017 when the O’s went 17-12 with a +51 run differential.
— Connor Newcomb (@ConnorNewcomb_) June 21, 2022
The Nats have the league’s worst team ERA (5.28), the fifth-worst bullpen ERA (4.45) and although they are hitting .254 as a team (fifth), they lack power in the lineup and sit 25th in home runs and 21st in runs per game.
The Washington bats might look to have a good matchup on paper with Jordan Lyles, but getting a heavy dose of the Baltimore bullpen isn’t ideal. Lyles was scratched from his Sunday start, so we aren’t fully sure he’ll get his full workload in today, and if he falters early, the Orioles are still in good hands for their middle and late innings.
The Baltimore pen is rested after an off day yesterday and currently has the seventh-best ERA in baseball. Their middle relievers of Nick Vespi (0.96 ERA), Cionel Perez (1.131 ERA), Joey Krehbiel (2.66 ERA), and Keegan Akin (2.48 ERA) are legit and the final three innings are locked down with Jorge Lopez, Felix Bautista, and Dillon Tate who all currently rock a sub-2.00 ERA. If the Orioles have to dip into the pen early, the Nationals could be seeing a parade of solid arms.
The home side will get to see Erick Fedde who, despite a 4.88 ERA, owns a 1.55 WHIP thanks to plenty of issues with contact and command. His Baseball Savant numbers are more blue than red. He doesn’t miss many bats, batters don’t chase, his velocity isn’t anything special (sinker/curveball pitcher), and he gives up hard contact.
Fedde will face a Baltimore offense that can hit the long ball and sits 11th in slugging percentage over the last month. Trey Mancini is questionable with a hand issue, but the day off yesterday should help the No. 2 hitter. Getting him back to the lineup would be a huge boost to the O’s, as No. 3 hitter Ryan Mountcastle put up a 1.253 OPS last week with three homers and owns a .904 OPS over the last 30 days.
The Orioles could plate some runs later in the game, as this Washington bullpen is also susceptible to getting torched. Combined with Fedde, this Baltimore offense has a great matchup today and their bullpen can keep things tight from the middle to late innings.
Prediction: Orioles moneyline (-130 at Caesars)
Covers MLB betting analysis
At 37-30-3 to the Over, the Nationals are one of the more profitable Over teams in baseball. They hit for a good average (.254) but also give up the most runs per game at 5.32. That number gets even worse on the road where the Nats allow close to six runs per game.
The Orioles have also been cashing their fair share of Over tickets of late, as their recently competitive streak has produced a 7-2 O/U record over the last 10 days. They’ve scored at least six runs in four of their last six games, and although runs at Oriole Park have been down, a generous wind (10 mph blowing to left field) and high temperatures (high-80s) should help make up for any park restrictions. Ballpark Pal has Oriole Park as +3% for runs today, which is higher than it usually is.
Baltimore leadoff batter, Cedric Mullins, has been swiping bags of late and is hitting over .300 across the last two weeks. Mullins has 15 stolen bases on the season and is three off the league lead. Fedde is not quick to plate and throws his curveball over 30% of the time. Mullins could certainly find himself in scoring position tonight with some hot sticks behind him in the lineup.
Mountcastle and Mancini handle sinker pitchers well, as both batters are hitting over .300 vs. the sinker this season. If Mountcastle can sit on a Fedde curveball (throws it 32% of the time), he could certainly change the score as the middle-of-the-order batter is hitting .448 and slugging .897 against the 116 curveballs he’s seen this season .
Lyles is coming off a stomach illness that forced him to miss his scheduled Sunday start. The righty hadn’t been particularly good in his previous outings ashe allowed 18 runs, 31 hits, eight walks and three home runs over his last four starts (19-plus innings). We doubt the bug has helped him turn the corner.
The main concern for this Over is the Baltimore bullpen which could certainly keep this game more low-scoring in the later innings. Because of it, we’d rather pivot to the F5 Over 5.5 (+100). We’re more than happy to bet on Fedde and Lyles to give it up before handing things over to the relievers.
Prediction: first five Over 5.5 (+100 at bet365)
Ryan Mountcastle is the Orioles’ hottest hitter of late and has a great matchup for plus money today versus Erick Fedde and a bad Washington bullpen.
The No. 3 hitter saw his eight-game hitting streak snapped on Sunday but he had at least two bases in six of those eight games. He’s hitting .385 with a 1.253 OPS over the last seven games and has a .904 OPS over the last 30 days.
Fastest to 50 ????
Ryan Mountcastle has become the fastest Oriole to reach 50 career home runs! pic.twitter.com/9eQHZvIhyV
— Baltimore Orioles (@Orioles) June 17, 2022
Mountcastle has never seen Fedde but he hits sinker/curveball pitchers well. Fedde throws over 65% of pitches as sinkers or curveballs and on the season, Mountcastle is hitting .448 versus curveballs and .308 against sinkers. Not many people can get on sinkers like Mountcastle who has a hard-hit percentage of 59.1% vs. sinkers (36% vs. curveballs.)
If Mountcastle can’t get it done vs. Fedde, he could easily collect a couple of bases versus the Nats’ bullpen that ranks dead last in ERA on the season.
Pick: Mountcastle Over 1.5 total bases (+125 at bet365)
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